We shall begin with the former. Ethiopias dam-construction strategy threatens not only Kenyas water-resource development efforts but also Somalias water security, as is evidenced by Ethiopias development plans for the Jubba and Shebelle Rivers. Water Politics and the Gulf States: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam First came the 1999 Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA). (DOC) Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Academia.edu But the Ethiopian elites show little interest in addressing such concerns, bent as they are on a nationalist revivalist project that claims an Ethiopian exceptionalism that places Addis Ababa above international law as it pursues a water-management strategy that has less to do with its development aims than with its ambitions to weaponise water in a bid for regional hegemony. Gebreluel, G. (2014). This exception was implemented to mitigate the risk of decolonisation leading to boundary wars. The three fillings hitherto, with the most recent in August 2022, imposed no discernible harm on downstream states. . Ethiopian Renaissance Dam & Its implications on Egypt Moreover, after the completion of the GERD, Egypt could run short of water if the operation of the GERD was not carefully coordinated with that of the AHD. The failure of the latest talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has intensified tensions between Ethiopia and downstream states Egypt and Sudan. l located on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia . Such an understanding and appreciation of Egypts water vulnerability would help the riparians develop a water management protocol that can significantly enhance equitable and reasonable use while minimizing significant harm to downstream riparians. Fast Track Approach to Design and Construction at Grand Ethiopian Created by. The Watercourses Convention aims to regulate the uses, as well as the conservation, of all transboundary waters above and below the surface. The official narrative is that Ethiopia can uproot poverty and bring about a definitive end to social and economic underdevelopment by means of the construction of a series of mega-dams combined with the development of the national energy infrastructure. Thus, it is only through cooperation that Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, and the other riparians can peacefully resolve conflicts over the Nile and achieve the type of water use that will contribute significantly to regional economic and human development. It can help the riparian states outline principles, rights, and obligations for cooperative management of the resources of the Nile. The Eastern Nile Basin is of critical geopolitical importance to the Niles overall hydro-political regime. Crucially, however, neither Egypt nor Ethiopia are parties to the Watercourses Convention and so they are not bound by its terms. As a consequence, Ethiopia has not been able to make significant use of the rivers waters. But this did not rule out eruptions of tension, not just between local communities and the central government, but also between Ethiopia and its neighbours. Ethiopia's dam dispute: five key reads about how it started and how it It's very unpredictable and it can be very dangerous," says Pottinger. However, for the reasons given above, the Nile Waters Treaties are unlikely to be considered territorial treaties. Ethiopia says second filling of Renaissance Dam complete Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Ending Africa's Oldest Geopolitical Rivalry? Ethiopia needs regional customers for its hydropower to ensure the economic feasibility of the GERD. These discussions highlighted benefits such as more consistent water flow, minimising the risks of flood and drought, and the potential for discounted hydroelectricity produced by the Dam. Al Jazeera (2020). The Blue Nile is Ethiopias largest river, with high potential for hydropower and irrigation. Typically, treaties contain provisions on the identification and function of the depositary, entry into force, adoption and so on (Article 24(4) Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT)). Basically, Ethiopia should cooperate with the other riparian states in developing and adopting an effective drought mitigation protocol, one that includes the possibility that GERD managers may have to release water from the reservoir, when necessary, to mitigate droughts. Even without taking the dam into account, the largely desert country is short of water. However, an agreement was still far from reach. The United States is Committed to Egypt's Water Security and Advancing Ethiopia seems to have the legal upper hand in this dispute. Because Ethiopia has been so cavalier with regard to the technical aspects of its dams, portions of them have also caved in soon after they began operation. They can also cause dispute and heartachefor example, over damage to. The 1902 Treaty did not preclude Ethiopia from undertaking works that might reduce, but not arrest, the flow of waters. However, Sudans future water requirements will likely exceed its water quota as defined in the 1959 Agreement. Although conflict over the allocation of the waters of the Nile River has existed for many years, the dispute, especially that between Egypt and Ethiopia, significantly escalated when the latter commenced construction of the dam on the Blue Nile in 2011. As mentioned above, Ethiopias dam-construction strategy is intimately linked with large-scale foreign investment in the agrarian sector and specifically in areas near the artificial reservoirs created by the dams. On March 4, 1982, Bertha Wilson became the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada. If the relevant parties can agree to these goals, the agreement, in the end, will need to include technical language that ensures equitable sharing of the Nile. Trilateral talks mediated by the United States and World Bank from November 2019 to February 2020 collapsed as Ethiopia rejected a binding agreement with Egypt and Sudan on the filling and operation of the GERD, which led to both downstream countries requesting intervention from the UN Security Council (UNSC) in May 2020 (Kandeel, 2020). per year, that would constitute a drought, to push the three countries to adhere to their obligations in accordance with the rules of international law in order to reach a fair and balanced solution to the issue of the GERD, 1929 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty and 1959 Agreement. Sima Aldardari. What are the disadvantages of the Aswan Dam? In general, the Ethiopian development philosophy rests on two pillars: mega-dams and mega-agricultural projects. Most recently, there have been suggestions that the African Union should resolve the disagreement. The Politics Of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Analysis Sudans agricultural and hydropower interests align with those of Ethiopia while it has a strong interest in not alienating its 'big brother' and northern neighbour, Egypt, with whom it shares a long and partly contested border (Whittington et al., 2014). It signifies that Egypts de facto veto power on major upstream dams has been broken, and it clearly demonstrates the political will of Ethiopia to develop its water infrastructure even in the absence of a comprehensive basin agreement. In addition, no independent, multilateral Environmental and Social Impact Assessments has been carried out suggesting that Ethiopia is reneging from the 2015 Declaration of Principles (Kandeel, 2020). But the project has caused concern. The writer is a professor of political science at the UAEs Zayed and Cairo universities, *A version of this article appears in print in the 9 July, 2020 edition ofAl-Ahram Weekly, Spain La Liga results & fixtures (24th matchday). However, Ethiopia ultimately refused to sign the draft agreement. Nevertheless, Egypt must not use sympathy for its water vulnerability as a weapon to frustrate the efforts of the other riparians to secure an agreement that is balanced, fair, and equitable. Addis Ababa expects to sell no less than 4,000 Megawatts (MW) of electricity to its regional partners in the coming decade. In response, Ethiopia threatened military force to defend the dam and protect its interests (The New Arab, 2020a). Von Lossow, T. & Roll, S. (2015). Sudan and Egypt, which rely most heavily on the . The Ethiopian government is spending $4.7 billion to construct the 1,780-meter dam across the Blue Nile. The principles of cooperation have not been translated into specific technical agreements on dam management (and more), in the context of difficult domestic politics for both sides. Cameroon's Choupo-Moting scores winner as Bayern reclaim Bundesliga top.. English Premier League results & fixtures (26th matchday), Germany Bundesliga results & fixtures (23rd matchday), Israeli delegation expelled from the African Union summit. It is therefore intrinsically connected with the question of land ownership. the study highlights the importance of weighing up the advantages and disadvantages of counter-hegemonic tactics in general, and of large dam projects in particular, and . Despite the fact that newly independent Sudan in the late 1950s was literally forced by a dominant Egypt into a highly asymmetrical water-sharing arrangement, Sudan has rarely challenged this arrangement. Benefits from the Nile's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - Rural 21 Misplaced Opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Update. In terms of the old or anachronistic law, two of the Nile Water Treaties do not bind Ethiopia meanwhile the third does not actually preclude the construction of a dam. On March 4, 1909, the Copyright Act of 1909 became law, making infringement of a copyright a federal crime for the first time. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and hydroelectric project is located 700 km northeast of the capital city Addis Abeba, in the Benishangul--Gumaz region of Ethiopia, along the Blue Nile River. However, another trend stresses the need to approach the question from a broader and more holistic perspective. Attempts to resolve the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute over the past decade have reached a deadlock. Therefore, a negotiated position that favours Ethiopia is likely to be reached once it becomes politically palatable enough inside Egypt. The New Arab (2020a). [35] The establishment of the Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile, up 145 and a storage capacity of 74 . (2017). Ethiopia rejects Arab League resolution on Renaissance Dam Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in Africa, has the second largest population in the continent. General view of the talks on Hidase Dam, built on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia, between Sudan and Egypt in Khartoum, Sudan on October 04, 2019. At stake, too, is . "The Israeli installation of the missile system around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was completed after the Israeli work began in May 2019, considering that it is the first Israeli air defense system abroad that can launch (two types of missiles), the first with a range of 5 km, and the second with a range of 50 kilometer". 17th round of GERD tripartite talks hits wall in Cairo. 67K views 6 months ago ETIOPIA The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, on the Blue Nile, is located around 14 km upstream of the Ethiopian-Sudan Border, at around 700 km from the Capital. Addis Ababa launched the construction of the GERD under Zenawi, and work on it has proceeded at full steam ahead ever since. Download PDF 1.40 MB. The former was initially funded by the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, but these later withdrew for legal and other reasons. Improved relations among Egyptians, Ethiopians, and Sudanese can go a long way in enhancing the ability of their leaders to negotiate and adopt agreements that reflect the interests of citizens, especially regarding economic development and poverty alleviation. In terms of the current status of talks, in 2019, US Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin began facilitating negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia which led to some tentative progress. Churning waters: Strategic shifts in the Nile basin. In fact, about 85 % of the overall Nile flow originates on Ethiopian territory (Swain, 2011). According to present plans, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) now under construction across the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia will be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa, and one of the 12 largest in the world. Elliot Winter is a lecturer (assistant professor) in international law at Newcastle University in the United Kingdom. This is a matter of acute concern given that Egypt depends on the Nile for about 97% of its irrigation and drinking water. Although Khartoum initially opposed the construction of the GERD, it has since warmed up to it, citing its potential to improve prospects for domestic development. Ethiopian general threatens military force to defend Nile dam as negotiations with Egypt falter. These two factors could become serious problems. Sudan is caught between the competing interests of Egypt and Ethiopia. UN ready to promote 'win-win solution' for Blue Nile dam project A significant segment of local opinion is also aware of the well-known problems that come with mega-dams wherever they are built, among them population displacements and resettlement, reductions in the quality of life, the spread of waterborne diseases, salinisation and the loss of productive and profitable lands, more intense competition over the remaining available land, and losses of cultural and historic heritage. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Fact Sheet The current filling which is ongoing since early July 2021 has presented no issues as well. Test. As a hydroelectric project, the dam is expected to generate 6,000 megawatts of electricity. Flashcards. Ethiopia announced in April 2011 that it intends to build four large dams on the Nile, including one of the largest in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (formerly known as Project X or the Grand Millennium Dam).This huge dam will flood 1,680 square kilometers of forest in northwest Ethiopia, near the Sudan border, and create a reservoir that is nearly twice as large as Lake Tana . It could be a treaty or merely a political declaration as the name implies. Article 5 requires that watercourse states utilise an international watercourse in an equitable and reasonable manner and creates the duty to cooperate in the protection and development of the watercourse. It has also expressed concerns about the potential impact the initial filling of the dam will have on areas downstream. Water scarcity is a growing problem. Officials in Addis Ababa argue that the GERD will have no major impact on water flow into the Nile, instead arguing that the hydropower dam will provide benefits to countries in the region, including as a source of affordable electric power and as a major mechanism for the management of the Nile, including the mitigation of droughts and water salinity. On 5 July 2021, Ethiopia informed Egypt and Sudan that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia is undergoing its second filling. In my opinion, this should be negotiable, to fill the lake over a longer period, and only when the river is sufficiently full. Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Niles waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERDs construction. Egypt relies on the river for as much as 90 percent of its freshwater and sees the new dam as an existential . An argument could be made that some of its provisions have passed into customary international law, however, that would require clear general practice and opinio juris. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) constitutes a real crisis for the Egyptian regime, where Ethiopia several times blamed Egypt for the failure of negotiations conducted between Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia on the dam. Also, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry later held the Egyptian side accountable for failure of these negotiations. Similarly, both the final agreement between the riparian states for the allocation of the water and resources of the Nile should include a dispute resolution mechanism. The Political Deadlock on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. For example, Ethiopians and Egyptians are more likely to understand and appreciate the challenges that they face, particularly in the areas of water security, climate change, food production, and poverty alleviation, if they regularly interact with each other and engage in more bottom-up, participatory and inclusive approaches to the resolution of their conflicts. In particular, the DoP takes a very strict approach to the no significant harm rule. The Nile is not a boundary-delimiting river, hence Ethiopia would almost certainly argue that the exception should not be applied here. Alaa al-Zawahiri, a member of the Egyptian National Panel of Experts studying the effects of the Renaissance Dam, believes as much. More alarmingly, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak allegedly even considered bombing the Dam. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD. Under the Ethiopian constitution, the state is the proprietor of the countrys land and natural resources, which gives the government significant control over the allocation and use of land. Because the strategy of land allocation and dam construction relied on senior executive decisions and foreign funding from China, above all, the government was largely freed of pressures of transparency and accountability. An optimistic trend among todays African commentators focuses primarily on economic growth rates and pays little attention to human tolls, questions of transparency and accountability, and the sustainability of growth. Kandeel, A. Ethiopia has two major plans for these rivers, which both flow into Somalia, in the form of the Wabe Shebelle and the Genale Dawa power plants. It seeks to build an infrastructure for regional water hegemony, positioning it, at the very least, in such a way that it can exchange water for oil. Initially opposed to the GERD, Sudan later expressed support for its construction in 2013, claiming that it would serve the interests of all three nations (Maguid, 2017). Success on this endeavor will only occur under a legally binding regime that ensures mutually beneficial rights. In fact, the Dam arguably smooths out the flow and mitigates the risk of both drought and floods. It simultaneously expects that this role will change Ethiopias international status from a country perceived as poor and dependent on foreign aid to a regional power able to provide vital resources to its surrounding region. This was an attempt at a wholesale replacement for the Nile Waters Treaties. Addis Ababa has said the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a $4bn hydropower project, is crucial to its economic development and to provide power. Second, as also noted above, the Dam is to be used for electricity generation, not irrigation. In June 2020, tensions escalated when Ethiopia declared its intent to fill the dam in July without an agreement, which again led to Egypt and Sudan requesting UNSC intervention on the matter (Kandeel, 2020). The International Court of Justice (ICJ) takes an expansionist view towards decolonisation as seen in the Chagos Islands Advisory Opinion, in which it allowed the decolonisation agenda to trump the UKs lack of consent to any contentious proceedings. The New Arab (2020b). According to this narrative, the Blue Nile, or Abay in Amharic, is a purely Ethiopian river. It and several other large dams in Ethiopia could turn the country into Africa's hydropower hub. Stratfor Worldview. Negotiations resumed three weeks after Al-Sisi took office in June 2014, and an agreement was made to resume negotiations - an achievementhailed by both Egypt and Ethiopia as a new chapter in relations between Egypt and Ethiopia based on openness and mutual understanding and cooperation (Omar, 2014). Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. This has now changed due to political consolidation over the past two decades and the advent of alternative sources of external finance (to the traditional multilateral development banks), not least from China (Gebreluel, 2014;IDS, 2013). What could have been strictly technical negotiations have turned into a political deadlock. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Africa's Water Tower Ethiopia could argue that those imperial powers did not foresee the decolonisation of Africa and that this represented a watershed event that profoundly changed the foundation on which the Nile Water Treaties were constructed. In March 2015, a 'Declaration of Principles' was signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, setting the foundations for an initial cooperation (Salman, 2017). Amazingly, the normally required social and environmental impact studies were only conducted three years after construction of the dam had began. Attia, H. & Saleh, M. (2021). A more recent trilateral meeting mediated by the African Union in mid-July, however, appeared to diffuse the situation with all three countries reaching a major common understanding towards achieving an agreement (Al Jazeera, 2020). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is estimated to cost close to 5 billion US dollars, about 7% of the 2016 Ethiopian gross national product. The filling regime and operational methods of GERD will affect Egypt, in particular through its impact on the operation of its Aswan High Dam (AHD) which aims at mitigating the high variability of the Nile River flow. Security implications of growing water scarcity in Egypt. Salman, S.M.A. The IPoE report recommended two studies to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of GERD and was interpreted by both the Egyptian and the Ethiopian government as a vindication of their respective positions. The crucial leverage regarding Egypts water security lies with the Blue Nile countries Ethiopia and Sudan, as the Blue Nile is the main contributor to the Nile Rivers flow downstream. [18] Similarly, in 2018, the UNSC noted the water security risks in African nations such as Somalia, Sudan and Mali. Another difficulty for Egypt is that making this argument (i.e. Location l Formerly called as project x then known as the Millennium Dam then it renamed to Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. It concludes that Ethiopias legal position is far stronger and that a negotiated agreement in its favour is the most likely outcome of the dispute. In 1964, the US Land Reclamation Bureau conducted a study for the Ethiopian government, identifying 33 hydraulic projects in the Blue Nile Basin. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the Blue Nile dam, which Egypt fears will imperil its water supply. International rights organisations have reported that many cases of displacement were not voluntary and that entire communities were driven from their villages. Why the Nile could see a 'water war'. According to Article 16, former colonies do not inherit the treaty obligations of their former colonial rulers and instead receive a clean slate. However, Egypt could argue that the territorial treaty exception, under Articles 11 and 12, applies whereby colonial treaty provisions concerning boundaries must survive the impact of succession and bind successor states. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a powerful generation linchpin Both Egypt and Ethiopia could make arguments in support of their positions. The largest permanent desert lake in the world, Turkana has three national parks that are now listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites. Cairo Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. "The Blue Nile is the lifeblood of Egypt and its people and critics fear the dam could significantly reduce water flow to the country." "Climate change is such a big unknown. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. Factbox: Key facts about Ethiopia's giant Nile dam | Reuters A major reason the GERD is so controversial today is that it has not been subjected to thorough safety and impact studies, which could pose a grave threat to downriver nations. Disadvantages of the grand ethiopian renaissance dam jobs Therefore, all the water is eventually released downstream with the effect that there is no net loss of water to downstream states. (PDF) Benefit of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Project (GERDP) for The so-called Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Gerd) is Africa's biggest hydroelectric project to date. Poverty alleviation, which is a major concern for all Nile Basin countries, could form the basis of a cooperative arrangement between all the Niles riparians. Disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) Second came the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP) which concerned the Dam specifically (rather than the Nile more broadly). Consequently, under the principle of pacta tertiis nec nocent nec prosunt, it could demonstrate that those treaties cannot bind it as it was a third party and did not give its consent. An unsubscribe function is also at the bottom of every newsletter. Ethiopia Needs the United States to Act as an Honest Broker in the Nile . Such a mitigation program can make it much easier for Egyptian and Sudanese authorities to cooperate with Ethiopia and the other riparians in creating and adopting an agreement for management of the Nile. Could the Nile dispute be an opportunity to boost freshwater technology? The Chinese-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), despite a recent breakdown in talks on Africa's largest development project, risks powering up a range of downstream tensions and rivalries. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative impacts not only on Egypt but also on poor communities in Ethiopia as well as on its Nile Basin neighbours. AFRICANGLOBE. For example, in 2017, the UNSC highlighted the security risks of water stress in the Lake Chad Basin Region, affecting Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, based on a combination of water scarcity, drought, desertification and land degradation. Hence, it is hard to see how Egypt could make a compelling argument that it has been harmed by the Dam.
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